Estimates of HIV prevalence, and how it changes over time, are needed to inform action (e.g., resource allocation) to improve HIV-related public health. However, creating adequate estimates of (diagnosed and undiagnosed) HIV prevalence is challenging due to biases in samples receiving HIV testing and due to difficulties enumerating key risk populations. To our knowledge, estimates of HIV prevalence among high risk heterosexuals in the United States produced for geographic areas smaller than the entire nation have to date been only for single years and/or for single cities (or other single geographic locations). The present study addresses these gaps by using multilevel modeling on multiple data series, in combination with previous estimates of HIV prevalence among heterosexuals from the extant literature, to produce annual estimates of HIV prevalence among high risk heterosexuals for each of 89 metropolitan statistical areas, from 1992-2013. It also produces estimates for these MSAs and years by racial/ethnic subgroup to allow for an examination of change over time in racial/ethnic disparities in HIV prevalence among high risk heterosexuals. The resulting estimates suggest that HIV prevalence among high risk heterosexuals has decreased steadily, on average, from 1992-2013. Examination of these estimates by racial/ethnic subgroup suggests that this trend is primarily due to decreases among Black and Hispanic/Latino high risk heterosexuals. HIV prevalence among white high risk heterosexuals remained steady over time at around 1 percent during the study period. Although HIV prevalence among Black and Hispanic/Latino high risk heterosexuals was much higher (approximately 3.5% and 3.3%, respectively) than that among whites in 1992, over time these differences decreased as HIV prevalence decreased over time among these subgroups. By 2013, HIV prevalence among Hispanic/Latino high risk heterosexuals was estimated to be very similar to that among white high risk heterosexuals (approximately 1 percent), with prevalence among Black high risk heterosexuals still estimated to be almost twice as high. It is likely that as HIV incidence has decreased among heterosexuals from 1992-2013, mortality due to all causes has remained disparately high among racial/ethnic minorities, thereby outpacing new HIV cases. Future research should aim to empirically examine this by comparing changes over time in estimated HIV incidence among heterosexuals to changes over time in mortality and causes of death among HIV-positive heterosexuals, by racial/ethnic subgroup.
Trajectories of and disparities in HIV prevalence among Black, White, and Hispanic/Latino high risk heterosexuals in 89 U.S. metropolitan statistical areas, 1992-2013
Annals of Epidemiology, 64, 140-148. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2021.08.015. PMCID: PMC8747890.